Hi Josh, good to have you with us. Do you feel the voter ID law had any impact on the results we see so far?
Patrick: Well, it's less the margin that I find surprising and more so the drop-off from 2010 early voting: almost 80,000 votes. I expect the GOP to do better in early voting than in-person voting.
And what do you think about the margin we're now seeing in the governor's race? It's been called for Davis, but is there any potential for the gap to narrow in a way that gives Democrats some consolation?
Syeda: I wouldn't say that I have a strong feeling on that front. The truth of the matter is that I think voter ID laws matter, but I think that based on the research, we would only expect the impact of voter ID laws to be in the neighborhood of 1-2 percent. So will it impact this election, absolutely not. But it could matter if there were some closer races. The problem is that it's hard to know who would have showed up, but for the fact that they were discouraged by the law. That's the big unknown, but also a small group of voters.
It's the total vote that interests me at this point. Can the Dems as a group get above the 1.8 million mark that has largely been their ceiling since 2002? Too early to say just yet.
AP just called the lieutenant governor's race for Republican Dan Patrick.
Patrick: honestly, I don't think so. There's been very little to indicate (in the polling) that this race is going to be in single digits. Only if there are large pockets of hard-to-reach voters, and in turn respondents that we as pollsters have missed, is there likely to be a tightening, but right now, I see no reason to think that those voters exist in Texas in 2014.
Chris Christie, the chairman of the Republican Governors Association, just issued this statement about Abbott's victory: "“Greg Abbott won this election because he proved himself to be a strong leader who will build a strong foundation and a bright future for Texas. Abbott made clear that, as governor, he will stop at nothing to preserve Texas values, all while continuing to push forward the pro-jobs, pro-growth policies that are already driving Texas to the top. The Republican Governors Association is proud to congratulate Governor-elect Greg Abbott on his victory.”
Dwight: I think that the ad probably helped her more than it hurt her, but only marginally. Negative ads tend to hurt the person who deliver them as much as it hurts the target, give or take.
Dwight, the ad generated a lot of attention, but at the end of the day, I don't think it'll factor into the broader explanation of why Davis lost.
I agree with Patrick. The fundamentals of the electorate are too strongly in favor of the Republicans for a single ad to make a difference - if a single ad ever really has that power.
Josh, do you think that'll be the primary explanation for Davis' loss -- the odds were never in her favor, plain and simple?
The statewide races have all been called for Republicans, but there's still some suspense out there: The race for congressional district 23 is not over.
It's considered the only competitive congressional race in Texas this cycle, and only 20-something precincts out of 334 are reporting.
Absolutely. I think Davis has been the unfortunate victim of unrealistic expectations. And the thing that people haven't really thought about is to what extent having a real foil in Davis may have aided Republicans.
Rim is being kind of snide, but he raises a valid point: Is Battleground Texas mortally wounded? Is this a big enough failure to hurt them?
And Josh, why did people outside of Texas love Wendy Davis, while those in-state weren't as enamored?
Battleground Texas will have some numbers that they'll hang on to so that they can say that they've started the job. BGTX never intended to win in 2014.
Josh, that's a great point. Davis seemed to energize Republicans as much as she energized Democrats at times.
Not many surprises. We might see some TX Senate or House seats in play.
BREAKING: GOP Greg Abbott wins election as governor of Texas. @AP race call at 9 p.m. EST poll close. #Election2014 #APracecallby The Associated Press via twitter 11/5/2014 2:06:14 AM
So, did Wendy Davis' "Justice" ad, featuring a wheelchair, do her more harm than good? What do you think? www.youtube.comby Dwight Silverman via YouTube 11/5/2014 2:10:51 AM
by Teddy Schleifer via twitter 11/5/2014 2:14:51 AM
The spin from liberal @ProgressTX in statement just now: "Put simply, progressives are ahead of schedule in 2014." #txvotes #txlegeby Brian M. Rosenthal via twitter 11/5/2014 2:15:04 AM
BREAKING: @AP calls AG/all down ballot races for Republicans: @Glenn_Hegar @RyanSitton @KenPaxtonTX @georgepbush #txvotes #tx2014 #txlegeby Lauren McGaughy via twitter 11/5/2014 2:15:28 AM
Wade Goodwyn is talking on our air (88.7 FM) about the #GOP sweep
by Joshua Fechter via twitter 11/5/2014 2:23:55 AM
by MarieDennise via twitter 11/5/2014 2:24:16 AM